Why does this matter?

I decided to run this special Yes We Didnae survey to examine how Yessers feel about the SNP. I feel that's important as the biggest pro-Indy party goes into a conference where it has some deep thinking to do if it is to avoid electoral disaster in 2026. One of the reasons suggested for the SNP faring poorly in the UK General Election is that some Yessers did not out come to vote for them. I wanted to find out what Yes voters think about the SNP and independence.

More than 1,300 people responded to the survey, the vast, vast majority of them either past or current Yes voters. Some will be SNP members, others not. I deliberately did not ask about party membership as this project is about the Yes movement, not any one particular political party. A caveat: this is not an opinion poll. This is a self-selecting survey filled in by anyone wanting to take it. I have not weighted respondents by demographic or voter intention but it does provide a useful snapshot of what a large number of Yes voters think.

The SNP and the case for Indy

Some 81% of respondents said that "the SNP has not effectively developed the case for an independent Scotland". (The remaining 19% believed: "The SNP has managed to develop the case for an independent Scotland since 2014".) Further, 57% rated the SNP's stewardship of the independence cause since 2014 as either "ineffective" or "very ineffective". The proportion who thought the SNP had been "effective" or "very effective" on this was just 17%. 

On the question of whether the SNP would deliver independence by 2030, 57% said that was either "unlikely" or "very unlikely". Just 21% said it was "likely" or "very likely". There was also not much faith in the mechanism of using general and/or Scottish elections as de facto referenda with only 29% of respondents saying it would deliver an independent Scotland.

Here are some comments respondents made:

• The reason we lost in 2014 was due to ambiguity around pensions, finances and currency - I know many people who were soft Yes but voted No because of that.

• Need to highlight the advantages of independence constantly.

• Independence needs to be bold, exhaustively researched and very well sold to the people. None of these aspects are apparent at present. 

• 10 years and we are no further forward. 

• We need new thinking.

What about the Yes movement?

There was a strong feeling that the SNP had not listened to the wider movement, with just 6% of respondents agreeing with the statement "the SNP leadership has valued the views of the wider Yes movement highly". Some 43% felt "the SNP leadership has paid no attention to the views of the wider Yes movement".

There was not a lot of optimism about the Yes movement either. In fact here's a wordcloud of answers respondents gave to the question: "In one word how would you describe the Yes cause at the moment?" It's pretty grim reading:

Some comments sum this up:

• While I have enjoyed the marches I don’t think they are enough to get the message out there. Also the shouting and banners against particular parties might put people off. The marches don’t seem as optimistic as they used to be, lots of negativity around.

• I would query what on earth the Yes movement actually is and if it actually exists

• We have lapsed into a clan mentality rather than a united front

• On its current trajectory the independence movement is heading to irrelevance.

What about new structures?

I asked if we needed a new cross-party umbrella organisation to help coordinate the drive for independence? Some 80% of respondents said "yes". And when I asked about the need for a new think tank in a similar vein, 74% said "yes". Many, however, mentioned Common Weal, Believe In Scotland, and other such initiatives.

The following comments were pretty representative:

• Organisations that already exist need to come together and collaborate. No one is listening to each other.

• I'd like to see the SNP become more involved with the Yes movement and bring them in and become more organised and proactive 

• We need a clear pathway to independence defined. There must be a definitive answer as to how we get there. Until we have our route planned we cannot campaign effectively. Too many pro-indy sources are reduced to simply pointing out how bad things are in the UK now, without offering any solution. It is depressing and disheartening 

• The Yes movement needs leadership and a focus on developing the case for an independent Scotland in the EU with the freedom to make economic, social, and cultural choices and develop beneficial alliances with the remaining UK as well as with other Northern European nations. 

And, as a campaigner who believes in mobilising people power, I particularly liked this comment: "Too many people in the yes movement are looking for some kind of mythical leader to come along and lead us to independence. When in fact we all are leaders." The answer exists among us all.

What now?

Remember, the vast majority of respondents (95%+) to this survey are Yessers. From the fact they made the effort to take the survey we can deduce that they are dedicated Yessers too. They are the people whose votes the SNP needs. These are the people that the cause of independence needs if it's ever to happen.

Their morale is low. The majority feel the SNP has not advanced the cause for independence in the past ten years. They feel the movement is rudderless and fractured. Some think there need to be new structures. Others believethat existing ones need to work together better (as opposed to better together…). It's also worth noting that the word "egos" came up dozens of times. They think there needs to be thought leadership and more serious policy work done.

If I was an SNP strategist, I'd find a lot of food for thought there. 

One positive note, 78% respondents think Scotland will be independent one day.

What's next from Yes We Didnae?

This snap survey interrupted my analysis of the big survey so many of you did. I'll soon be releasing results on: 

• Key moments of the campaign

• People's experience of the campaign

• What No voters have said so far

Thank you for reading and taking part!