Thank you … and apologies

First of all, thank you for filling in the Yes We Didnae survey about why the Yes side lost the 2014 independence referendum. 

Second, please accept my apologies for not publishing any results sooner. I was simply overwhelmed by the fantastic response: more than 1,600 people took the survey. Also, I needed to find a tool which would let me email very large numbers of people without costing me a fortune, hence this email from Behiiv. (As it's a tool I'm new to, further apologies if it's screwed up your name or salutation or anything else…)

#GE24!!!

The other thing which threw me, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this, was the General Election. That changes things, if you'll forgive me an understatement of titanic proportions. In light of that, before we go any further, I want to run an emergency survey about what the election result means for independence. I'd publish the responses before SNP conference. 

If you think I should be asking a particular question in that survey, please suggest it here: What questions should the movement be thinking about during SNP conference?

OK, on with the results of the first survey. My plan is to release these through a series of emails and then as a report, once I've made my way through all the data. But here are some initial top-line findings.

What's the big idea???

Of the 1,610 people who took the survey, 83% voted Yes in the independence referendum.  When asked why they voted Yes, their answers fell into these broad areas:

• Dissatisfaction with Westminster and the direction the UK has taken

• A belief we could be a fairer nation

• A sense of Scotland's distinct identity

• A desire to be European

Here are some example quotes: 

• "The priorities of a country of 5 million will always be different from a country of 55 million."

• "I believe Scotland will thrive as an independent country as we see from other small countries of a similar size i.e. Denmark and Norway."

• And many people made the point that: "Independence is normal."

None of this may surprise you and may indeed fall into the "no sh*t, Sherlock" category but it helps make sense of what comes next. 

One of the questions I asked was "What was the least convincing argument made by the Yes side in the 2014 referendum?". This was answered by 1,463 people. The response of the 1,209 Yes voters who answered this is best summed up by this wordcloud (which displays the most frequently used words in larger sizes):

Here's a sample of responses from Yes voters:

• "Which currency would we use?  It was a mess and the electorate were greatly confused."

• "What currency would be used in an independent Scotland. There were several options put forward in Scotland’s Future but these were never mentioned in TV debates etc. It always seemed to be fluffed around with general statements like 'It's not a problem' Not a great stance against the 'How can you be independent without your own currency?' argument."

• "All over the place on currency and pensions. The two topics where it is easiest to frighten people into voting for no change."

The responses from the No voters who answered this question showed the same: issues around currency (and pensions and economy) stand out very clearly. Again, this is not a surprise given the extent to which the No campaign went hard on these issues. However, it does show that they were very effective in achieving cut-through with their messaging.

Where things get interesting is when we look at the question "What was the most compelling argument made by the Yes side in the 2014 referendum?". 1,480 people answered this and neither Yes nor No voters identified any standout issues in the same way. 

Now, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. There are lots of reasons for wanting Scotland to be independent. Some people want a nimble economy focused on helping Scotland's business environment. Others look to more Scandinavian models of how to run a country, or want to protect public services from austerity. Some want jazzy innovations unavailable under the Westminster system, such as a written constitution. Still others think it just makes democratic sense for Scotland to choose its own path.

It was a great strength of the Yes movement that there were so many different visions of the potential Scotlands that independence could unleash. However, the survey results show that these were not brought together in one easily-grasped "pound in your pocket" message. No one issue stands out as the Yes side's strongest argument.

However, the survey shows that all voters were clear that the No side did have one: currency.

This clearly warrants further thought as Yessers think about how to advance the independence argument: is there a single, easily-understood issue that sums up the benefits - the need, even - for Scotland to make all its own decisions? And how can that issue speak to people in a simple practical way about their day-to-day lives - especially during a cost of living crisis and yet more austerity - in the way that the No campaign's argument about currency did in 2014?

Still to come:

I'll soon be sending out updates on:

• Key moments of the campaign

• People's experience of the campaign

• What No voters have said so far

Thank you very much for reading and taking part.